About FLUX

WP leader: Jessica Nisén (UTU)
Implemented jointly by: UTU and CSDS

FLUX WP1 seeks reasons for the fertility decline and high levels of childlessness. We study how changing fertility and family dynamics are linked to social and gender inequalities, employment and economic uncertainties, and societal crises. We use register and survey data sources and compare Nordic and other European countries.

Much of the fertility research concentrates on women, but we make gender comparisons and examine both partnership and fertility dynamics. WP1 is a core WP in FLUX and it is strongly linked to all other WPs.

WP leader: Katariina Salmela-Aro (EDU)
WP co-leader: Rasmus Mannerström (EDU)
Implemented jointly by: EDU and UTU

FLUX WP2 investigates how identity formation, personal goals, social media use (including online dating), values, and psychological well-being predict the formation, quality, and stability of partnerships, and intended and actual childbearing among young adults.

WP2 builds on longitudinal research to test the hypothesis that having a consolidated identity, strong mental health, goals related to developmental tasks and low digital cognitive overload positively predict family formation. WP2 hypothesises that in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the rise of right-wing populism, values and lifestyles have become polarised by gender especially in the lower social strata, and that these forces are negatively affecting family formation.

Panel data is used to study changes in values and lifestyles in Finland and across Europe, and register and survey data is used to analyse socioeconomic and psychological characteristics. New interview data will also be collected from two cohorts.

WP leader: Mika Gissler (UTU)
Implemented jointly by: UTU and CSDS

FLUX WP3 will study the consequences of fertility declines and delayed childbearing on maternal and perinatal health and subsequent health. A particular focus will be on couples and women who use fertility treatments, both successfully and unsuccessfully.

We will use our register data, which include rich information on socioeconomic characteristics across the life course and on reproductive health, e.g., births, induced abortions, and sexually transmitted infections). We also link information on fathers. Nordic register data on mothers, fathers, and children will be used to study the effects of infertility treatments on mortality and morbidity, including both somatic diseases and mental and behavioural disorders.

WP leader: Mikko Myrskylä (CSDS)
WP co-leader: Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist (CSDS)
Implemented jointly by: CSDS, UTU, and ETK

FLUX WP4 will use rich total population register data and advanced simulation and forecasting techniques to address gaps in our knowledge about the consequences of fertility and family dynamics. WP4 covers three key themes:

1)  how timing of the parenthood – in terms of chronological age and life stage – predicts the health and well-being of children throughout their adult ages

2)  how parenthood influences well-being and the extent to which well-being during the transition to parenthood predicts further fertility

3)  lastly, WP4 will combine the results of WP6 on these associations and implement them in the pension simulation models of the ETK to evaluate the macro-economic impacts of lower and later fertility.

WP leader: Mikko Myrskylä (CSDS)
WP co-leader: Julia Hellstrand (CSDS)
Implemented jointly by: CSDS and ETK

Predicting future fertility is critical for co-designing effective policies for a sustainable society. FLUX WP5 will combine cutting-edge forecasting and nowcasting approaches to predict Finnish fertility by age and parity (birth order) at the national and sub-national levels while accounting for long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. These forecasts will serve as a basis for co-creating long-term pension policy options for a sustainable welfare society.

Bayesian and extrapolation approaches will be extended to forecast Finnish fertility by region and parity over the long term. Web search data predicting pregnancies and pregnancy intentions will be nowcasted. These approaches will be combined to predict fertility, and the future fertility paths across regions will be compared and the far-reaching implications for population ageing and key macro-economic outcomes will be explored.

WP leader: Eva Österbacka (ÅAU)
Implemented jointly by: ÅAU and UTU

FLUX WP6 will study the short-term and long-term effects of childbirth and parental leave use on employment, job characteristics, and earnings among women and men; and the link between gendered childcare and subsequent partnership stability and fertility. We hypothesise that taking extended periods of childcare leave affects (1) labour market outcomes for women and men and (2) fertility; but these effects are highly heterogeneous.

We use Finnish and Nordic register data to compare across countries. We employ several strategies to identify the causal effects of childcare leaves in the Finnish context. In research on effects of parental leave reforms, we collaborate with the PREDLIFE project, and WP7 and Kela researchers. Together with WP3, we will compare the careers of involuntarily childless women (due to non-successful fertility treatments) and mothers to shed light on how career choices are related to motherhood penalties. The results of WP6 are also used in the simulation forecasts of WP4.

WP leader: Pasi Moisio (THL)
WP co-leader: Merita Mesiäislehto (THL)
Implemented jointly by: THL and UTU

FLUX WP7 will study and compare at both the national and local levels how social and family policies – ranging from benefit schemes to local services and labour market regulation – can support fertility and family formation to promote sustainable demographic changes. WP7 evaluates how national policies contribute to childbearing and the economic and subjective well-being of families with children, which will provide valuable information for policy learning across the EU.

We use excellent data covering national randomised controlled trial (RCT) experiments and longitudinal EU- and municipality-level population surveys, linked to Finnish register data. We also use cross-sectional and longitudinal EU-SILC data to study the effects of differences in national policies and reforms on fertility rates and family well-being in a multilevel setting.

WP leader: Milla Ikonen (UTU)
Implemented by: UTU

FLUX WP8 is devoted to implementing societal interactions, led by the Impact and interaction manager Milla Ikonen working closely with the consortium PI and the WP leaders. Together with the PI and WP leaders, she will be responsible for developing and implementing the interaction strategy through a detailed action plan, for ensuring the optimal timing of interactions, and for developing a system for follow-ups. The aims of the communication are: 1) support the objectives of the interaction plan and research plan with active communications, 2) raise awareness about FLUX and its activities and results, and 3) enhance and protect the FLUX mission.

FLUX WP9 is devoted to management and coordination. Consortium PI, who acts as the FLUX director, leads the WP9. The Deputy PI partners, cooperate closely, and share tasks with the PI and act as her substitute when needed.

The FLUX executive group consists of the sub-project and WP PIs, and the project and interaction coordinators. The executive group enhances FLUX’s operations as a whole following the research and interaction objectives. FLUX will nominate a Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) and a Societal Impact Advisory Board (SIAB).